Economic Review – November 2023

06/12/2023

Our latest Economic Review covers:

OBR cuts economic growth forecast – Revised forecasts revealed in the Autumn Statement from the Office for Budget Responsibility (#OBR) suggest the UK economy is set to grow more slowly over the next two years than previously predicted. The updated forecast predicts the economy will expand by 0.6% this year and then by 0.7% in 2024 and 1.4% in 2025.

Inflation rate falls sharply – Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate stood at 4.6% in October. This represents a significant fall from September’s 6.7% figure and was below analysts’ expectations which pointed to a rate of 4.8%.

Pay growth outstripping inflation – According to latest ONS figures, average weekly earnings excluding bonuses rose at an annual rate of 7.7% in the July – September period. Adjusting for inflation, regular pay increased by 1.3% on the year; this represents the largest rise in real earnings since the three months to September 2021.

Retail sales fall again – Although economists had expected a small rise, official statistics revealed that the volume of products sold in the UK fell by 0.3% in October. This follows a downwardly revised decline of 1.1% in September to leave total retail sales at their lowest level since early 2021.

Download the latest Economic Review here.

This article was written by Akmaral Parnell

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